EV drawbacks

Fast Eddie · Jul 10, 2024

Richard Tool said:
Not so sure I should repeat something I have not researched myself but for consideration as a possibility I’ll mention it. Anyone who has information to the contrary please say so - I am happy to stand corrected. I have heard that during their lifetime offshore wind turbines consume a tremendous amount of fossil fuel-some claim even more than they save . Their manufacture , transportation , erecting , and servicing / repairs all require fossil fuel consumption.
Food for thought.

I’ve posted this before…

I did some consulting work in maintenance in a large off shore windmill company.

The short version is: they were using 10 times more concrete than initially planned, the utilisation was a little over half what was estimated, and the ‘turrets’ (the money end with huge 4 metre diameter shafts running in huge bronze bushes, etc) that were supposed to last 25 years, were being changed at 5 years, so 5 times more often.

To change the turrets this often, a fleet of “platform” ships were needed.

ALL of the above has a MASSIVE carbon footprint and yet the original assumptions (upon which viability decisions were made) were NOT amended !

I was staggered and became sceptical as to the whole shebang right then and there.

Just looking at one of these huge shafts made me wonder how long the carbon payback on that part alone was. Then to factor in all of the above, it just seemed impossible to me that this entire wind farm would ever break even in terms of carbon.

However, this was a few years ago, maybe things have improved since then ??

marshg246 · Jul 10, 2024

Fast Eddie said:
Your point about nuclear is also valid, it’s a very clean source of ‘steady state’ generation, but it cannot cope with fluctuation in demand.

Absolutely true of the current plants. However, breeder reactors can be easily controlled, and the can (should) use the current nuclear waste. However, Govt's (and people) are scared of the tiny bit of plutonium they create while making new fissile material.

marshg246 · Jul 10, 2024

Richard Tool said:
Not so sure I should repeat something I have not researched myself but for consideration as a possibility I’ll mention it. Anyone who has information to the contrary please say so - I am happy to stand corrected. I have heard that during their lifetime offshore wind turbines consume a tremendous amount of fossil fuel-some claim even more than they save . Their manufacture , transportation , erecting , and servicing / repairs all require fossil fuel consumption.
Food for thought.

Here's an interesting article on cost of windows turbines: https://todayshomeowner.com/eco-friendly/guides/how-long-does-it-take-a-wind-turbine-to-pay-for-itself/#:~:text=It would take about 6 years and 7,matter how long the turbine is in operation.

It doesn't cover the fossil fuel consumption to achieve those costs nor the operation and maintenance. So, no real understanding of designing, building buying land for installation, connecting to the grid, operation, maintenance, decommissioning and more. I would not be shocked that to find a net loss against fossil fuels right now depending on location, method of generating the fossil fuels, transporting it and so on.

It would take a LOT of computer power to determine those answers for each location and the location matters a lot.

Richard Tool · Jul 10, 2024

marshg246 said:
Here's an interesting article on cost of windows turbines: https://todayshomeowner.com/eco-friendly/guides/how-long-does-it-take-a-wind-turbine-to-pay-for-itself/#:~:text=It would take about 6 years and 7,matter how long the turbine is in operation.

It doesn't cover the fossil fuel consumption to achieve those costs nor the operation and maintenance. So, no real understanding of designing, building buying land for installation, connecting to the grid, operation, maintenance, decommissioning and more. I would not be shocked that to find a net loss against fossil fuels right now depending on location, method of generating the fossil fuels, transporting it and so on.

It would take a LOT of computer power to determine those answers for each location and the location matters a lot.

Interesting article Greg - thanks for posting . The article clearly states that cost estimates are based on onshore turbines. Obviously offshore units are more expensive in every way .
Construction , maintenance , repair , infrastructure for transmission of electricity, decommissioning, etc. The article also claims a 25 year lifespan . The units that Nigel referenced in the above post had a lifespan that was considerably less.

Hmmm.

Fast Eddie · Jul 10, 2024

Yes Richard but they did have a 25 years designed lifespan.

One thing I found fascinating was their acceptant attitude. When I scoffed at changing the turrets 5 times more frequently than the designed intent, the answer was “yes but they’re in a difficult environment” !

“No they’re not”! I challenged, “they’re operating in their INTENDED environment” !!

concours · Jul 10, 2024

Fast Eddie said:
Yes Richard but they did have a 25 years designed lifespan.

One thing I found fascinating was their acceptant attitude. When I scoffed at changing the turrets 5 times more frequently than the designed intent, the answer was “yes but they’re in a difficult environment” !

“No they’re not”! I challenged, “they’re operating in their INTENDED environment” !!

Translated, they were saying: "don't try and bring facts to into this ideology discussion!"

Richard Tool · Jul 10, 2024

I am curious as to what the maximum wind velocity current turbines can withstand. I regular see photos ( and yes , said photos may be brought forth by opponents ) of wind turbines on fire because of over speed.
I have personally experienced sustained 80 mph with gusts to 100 mph + here more than once . Can turbines do the ton ?

marshg246 · Jul 10, 2024

Richard Tool said:
I am curious as to what the maximum wind velocity current turbines can withstand. I regular see photos ( and yes , said photos may be brought forth by opponents ) of wind turbines on fire because of over speed.
I have personally experienced sustained 80 mph with gusts to 100 mph + here more than once . Can turbines do the ton ?

When big propeller airplanes had an engine failure, they "feathered" the props to stop them "windmilling" the engine to destruction. I wondered if wind turbine does that, read this: https://www.energy.gov/eere/article...ine’s,be locked down to ride out severe gusts.

So, it isn't about max winds speed - 100mph or more should be no problem. The problem is that if the wind is below the threshold and a gust way over the threshold hits, the turbine can be destroyed. Of course, this can also happen due to human or equipment failure where the blades do not/can not feather when they should.

baz · Jul 11, 2024

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...rrules-officials-immediate-north-sea-oil-ban/ here we go!

Lineslinger · Jul 11, 2024

What wind speeds are wind turbines actually rated to? What if a Hurricane Dorian changed tracks and hit an ocean based wind turbine farm?
Winds of 225mph plus are going to drop a lot of turbines. What is the supplemental power source when the turbines go for the long swim?

A blurb from an article/newsletter I read this morning EnergyX, soliciting investment in Lithium mining..."Each EV battery needs ~70 kg of lithium—10,000X the amount of an iPhone. With >1 billion EVs needed on roads by 2050, current lithium production can’t meet this requirement"

I called bullshit on the 1 billion road bound electric vehicles have zero confidence the EV market will have anywhere close to a billion vehicles in service in 2050.
Supplemental short distance EV transport could be in use, maybe.
But, methinks as energy sources continue to develop and as the environmental impacts of Lithium mining and disposal become more pronounced the Greenies are going to howl that one down the same way they address coal and crude oil and anything else sourced from beneath the earths surface.

kommando · Jul 11, 2024

Lineslinger said:
What wind speeds are wind turbines actually rated to?

In the UK the turbines stop producing over a certain wind speed, which is 55mph. If left to spin they would self destruct, which has happened when the brakes fail during a storm.

marshg246 · Jul 11, 2024

kommando said:
In the UK the turbines stop producing over a certain wind speed, which is 55mph. If left to spin they would self destruct, which has happened when the brakes fail during a storm.

Any reasonable design says that brakes are only really needed for maintenance. Brakes cannot stop a propeller that is not feathered in high wind!

Airplanes flying at up to 350 miles an hour that have an engine failure, feather the prop and have no brakes. This technology was in full use in WWII! Nothing new about it.

I'm not saying you did read that somewhere. I would like to read it if you can post a link.

Richard Tool · Jul 11, 2024

The problem ( as I see it and I believe I have a reasonable amount of mechanical aptitude) with comparison between the blades of aircraft propellers and wind turbine blades is the enormous difference in size / blade area.

marshg246 · Jul 11, 2024

Lineslinger said:
A blurb from an article/newsletter I read this morning EnergyX, soliciting investment in Lithium mining..."Each EV battery needs ~70 kg of lithium—10,000X the amount of an iPhone. With >1 billion EVs needed on roads by 2050, current lithium production can’t meet this requirement"

Early-2021 Info: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/chart-countries-produce-lithium-world/
Mid-2023 Info: https://www.energypolicy.columbia.e...heet-lithium-supply-in-the-energy-transition/

Good and bad news for the free world on Lithium. Australia produces 47-52 percent of the worlds mined Lithium; however, they export 90% of it to China.

Lithium battery recycling into Lithium and other important metals will soon be big business in the US - hopefully we keep it here, other free-world countries do the same, and we all stop having China make everything for us! (Not likely)

US dives into lithium battery recycling: 2023 preview - Fastmarkets

Find out more about how intense interest in lithium battery recycling in the US has grown in the past few years, driven by concerns over supply chains, national security, the environment and a growing interest in electric vehicles (EVs)

www.fastmarkets.com

marshg246 · Jul 11, 2024

Richard Tool said:
The problem ( as I see it and I believe I have a reasonable amount of mechanical aptitude) with comparison between the blades of aircraft propellers and wind turbine blades is the enormous difference in size / blade area.

On the other hand, they turn WAY slower, have MUCH heavier things like shafts, and don't have anywhere near the mechanical complication of a WWII B29. It's not about the size, it's about the sum of the air moving across each square inch/mm or whatever you like. The reason they are big is that the air movement is small in comparison to smaller propellers. At any size, and any reasonable wind speed, a properly feathered prop will not turn or will turn very little.

Lineslinger · Jul 11, 2024

I get all that but my point is how can a wind turbine hold up in Hurricane force winds?
It wont.
Sooner of later.....

texasSlick · Jul 11, 2024

Better efficiency at low rpm. Each blade interferes with the others. Fewer blades or lower rpm = less interference.

Slick

marshg246 · Jul 11, 2024

Lineslinger said:
I get all that but my point is how can a wind turbine hold up in Hurricane force winds?
It wont.
Sooner of later.....

Certainly cannot to a tornado as it would be impossible to keep turned into the wind and even if it could, the support would likely not withstand it. If a strong enough hurricane, it might also not be stay able to turned into the wind and may fail.

But for the vast majority of wind over 55mph it should already be turned into the wind, feathered, and should easily withstand 100mph gusts from the same direction. If you install one where you are LIKELY to see over 200 mph wind, you are stupid! Very few hurricanes are anywhere near that wind speed in VA, MD, NJ, NY or north or in any interior portions of the US and that is a risk they must factor in.

These are commercial companies, and you would hope that they have factored in the replacement cost for abnormal risks and decided that the risks are acceptable.

acotrel · Jul 11, 2024

I am current involved with bringing-up 3 young girls. I would dearly love to get them a ride in a prewar Bentley, just so they have that experience to give them a bit of perspective. Some years ago there was a guy in Deniliquin who had one. I am struggling to remember how to find him again.
Electric cars might be our future, but people should still need to know what real cars were about.

acotrel · Jul 11, 2024

concours said:
The part about little Johnny's Dad paying is what's wrong with the whole idea....
Today's 20,30 yo's haven't an accurate concept of cost.
JMWO

Money-motivation destroys peoples' values. Kids get educated to get better-paying jobs. That is not the best reason to become educated. If we seek genuine interest in the things we do, we will be better. If you are good at what you do money will usually find you. I tell the kids in my life to take note of the things they really like when they are in school, and when they work, keep those things in mind especially when job seeking.

EV drawbacks

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