Coronavirus

JimC said:

Now there are moronic church pastors packing their churches under the guise of religious freedom. Even going so far as urging those attending to shake hands. One such pastor has already been arrested.

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The irony is these are the same ones screaming about right to life, that every life is sacred yet......

this why the social distance rules are pretty much universal world wide (they know this is effective) as is the suggestion to treat everyone as if they are "infected" , testing all sadly is not an option at this point

If you could get a test that showed you to now have immunity it would take a lot of stress away, Encourage you to volunteer to help those essential services and would make a reservoir of blood donors who could provide antibodies to save those who are on their last legs and not responding to treatment. As a survivor I have offered myself plus the contact details of hundreds in the same position. Had no reply. The bigwigs appear to have their heads up their arsses while the heroes are dropping like flies.

New test kits are yielding results in 15 minutes, but nothing will really change until there's a vaccine.

Estuary boy said.......But BIG bottom line (and I'm not inviting political side swipes)… Why am I asking these questions on a motorcycle forum?

Exactly, I asked similarly "what do you (not Estuary Boy) think you (not Estuary Boy) will achieve by posting on AccessNorton" and got told it was not
an intelligent question ... People like to have something to do during Lock down so I'm leaving them that wish to waste the worlds supply of electrons

I'm going to start to fit a new rear mudguard after a nice cup of tea

Why does anyone ask anything anywhere?
This is the "anything goes" section of this forum.

I don't know why this question keeps coming up again and again.

Don't want to participate? Don't.
It's JUST. THAT. EASY.

NPeteN said:

Why does anyone ask anything anywhere?
This is the "anything goes" section of this forum.

I don't know why this question keeps coming up again and again.

Don't want to participate? Don't.
It's JUST. THAT. EASY.

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The inference was supposed to be why is this not common (or widely available) knowledge, as the 'News' outlets just seem to peddle the same old speculation, rhetoric and hyperbole...
We are fortunate to have those who are (or appear to be) knowledgeable on this site

EstuaryBoy said:

The inference was supposed to be why is this not common (or widely available) knowledge, as the 'News' outlets just seem to peddle the same old speculation, rhetoric and hyperbole...
We are fortunate to have those who are (or appear to be) knowledgeable on this site

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yes we are fortunate , there is no discussion on my local Ducati forum dealing with covid-19 other than when can we ride , where can we go , Gov. calls this loophole talk which they discourage daily ... the griso site has one thread which starts off with an update from member in northern Italy at peak of the crisis there , his first hand observations are chilling .... other than that it my Wife Jo , or this Pub that provide an outlet/inlet on thoughts and fears re-pandemic the News is just so inflammatory ....

Danno said:

New test kits are yielding results in 15 minutes, but nothing will really change until there's a vaccine.

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Problem with the rapid result devices, they are not high throughput. One sample is tested at a time. Fine for single patient in a doctors office setting. No so great when trying to screen a whole population or even a small town or community. High throughput systems can handle hundreds to thousands of samples per run. The reason the results take longer is overhead of getting samples to the testing locations, pre-processing and backlog. Actual test runs are only a few hours typically.

Testing evidence:

South Korea- 1 case of CORONAVIRUS per 5,000 people
United States 7 cases of CORONAVIRUS per 5,000 people

Deaths form COVID-19

South Korea-1 death per 250,000 people
United States- 14 deaths per 250,000 people

South Korea did a lot more early testing than the United States.

Looks like South Korea did a better job of treating COVID-19 patients, too.

A prime example from yahoo, who are running the following headline with absolutely no quoted sources to back it up (in fact the article doesn't even repeat anything in the headline):

Coronavirus news – live: UK lockdown ‘will be relaxed for certain age groups and areas first’ as public urged to stay at home on sunny Easter weekend

Regarding use of recovered patients antibodies as possible treatment, which is called convalescent sera treatment, we do not yet know if it is effective for this virus. There are only a few reports of it being used in a few patients. Not in controlled studies with large numbers. Since most patients recover on their own it is hard to know what actually has benefit without proper studies. Previous work has shown the sera is beneficial for SARS and MERS,both related corona viruses. It was not found useful for Ebola virus.

It is also not established if a recovered person is protected from subsequent infection/disease. Most likely they are protected, but for how long?

And just to add to my previous comment, there are viral diseases that can be made worse by presence of antibodies against the virus. Dengue Fever is much worse the second time you get it because the antibodies from first infection actually help the virus get into its target cells.

So we need to be careful when making life or death decisions when dealing with novel pathogens.

And right on time, we are hearing some troubling reports of positive tests from recovered patients:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/south-korea-coronavirus-covid19-reactivated-positive-1.5529066

Trump is fumbling a golden opportunity. If, at his daily press briefings, he were to state the truth and tell people how we need to stand together to beat this pandemic he would all but guarantee himself victory in November. Instead, he continues to lie-a-minute, berate those of the political opposite, scrap with reporters, brag of nonexistent accomplishments. My advise to Trump: Reserve a few U-Haul Trucks for January 19.

Results are coming in faster now, less than an hour but those quick tests are not universally available

I found a link to A quick one from Oxford but somehow couldn’t paste it here

From US News:


Presidents typically get a rally-round-the-flag reaction from the American public during a crisis, says Barbara Perry, a presidential scholar at the University of Virginia's Miller Center. President Jimmy Carter, though he would become very unpopular, got a surge of public support after Iran took hostages at the U.S. embassy in Tehran in late 1979. President George W. Bush, who had middling support after winning his 2000 election, saw his approval rating soar in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, as Americans united around their leader.

But Trump, in grasping the roles handed to him – comforter in chief and crisis manager – has continued his combative approach, notes William Howell, an American politics professor at the University of Chicago. Trump has attacked the media in general and individual reporters in particular during daily coronavirus briefings. He's lambasted Democratic governors, accusing them of exaggerating their needs and even hoarding supplies – and has even suggested he might not provide as much government assistance to those who do not speak kindly of him.

"These are moments when presidents are meant to shine, when we all reflexively turn to the president and fix our gaze on him, and keep it there," Howell says. But many, he says, "are doing so with contempt."

JimC said:

Testing evidence:

South Korea- 1 case of CORONAVIRUS per 5,000 people
United States 7 cases of CORONAVIRUS per 5,000 people

Deaths form COVID-19

South Korea-1 death per 250,000 people
United States- 14 deaths per 250,000 people

South Korea did a lot more early testing than the United States.

Looks like South Korea did a better job of treating COVID-19 patients, too.

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I would suggest that is evidence that they did indeed do a better job of treating more patients (note both ‘better’ AND ‘more’).

What value testing had however is another matter entirely. Testing alone does nothing, I assume we all agree on that. Targeted testing of key workers is indeed very valuable at preventing spread. Mass random test only gives us information, it’s the value of that information and the actions we implement as a result that matter. Testing when the virus first enters a new region is very valuable in helping to contain it. But once it’s out of the bag, that’s when I struggle to see the value (other than data gathering).

I believe the WHO value testing for data gathering reasons: it helps us to understand the virus. Without testing, we have no idea how many people are infected, the more we test, the greater the sample size, the more reliable the estimation is regarding total number infected.

I get all of that, and that is why I am certainly not arguing against testing... but it’s wrong for a society in the midst of an already embedded epidemic to think testing is gonna save them. It ain’t !

xbacksideslider said:

Results are coming in faster now, less than an hour but those quick tests are not universally available

I found a link to A quick one from Oxford but somehow couldn’t paste it here

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Yes, some individual labs can turn tests around faster. But that’s in small numbers in specific labs. If you’re talking mass testing of the population, it’s an entirely different ball game, and you’ll be looking at two days, if not more. It’s a mammoth undertaking that would require huge and complex processes, logistics, etc.

Fast Eddie said:

I would suggest that is evidence that they did indeed do a better job of treating more patients (note both ‘better’ AND ‘more’).

What value testing had however is another matter entirely. Testing alone does nothing, I assume we all agree on that. Targeted testing of key workers is indeed very valuable at preventing spread. Mass random test only gives us information, it’s the value of that information and the actions we implement as a result that matter. Testing when the virus first enters a new region is very valuable in helping to contain it. But once it’s out of the bag, that’s when I struggle to see the value (other than data gathering).

I believe the WHO value testing for data gathering reasons: it helps us to understand the virus. Without testing, we have no idea how many people are infected, the more we test, the greater the sample size, the more reliable the estimation is regarding total number infected.

I get all of that, and that is why I am certainly not arguing against testing... but it’s wrong for a society in the midst of an already embedded epidemic to think testing is gonna save them. It ain’t !

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I agree, it’s too late to get the results South Korea did. But if we don’t have the testing they did, the deaths in the US deaths are going to be in the millions.