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Eljahara

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We don't have enough tests to get an accurate depiction.

Where is Tornado? He can explain this.
You are correct Pete, the only way to tell if you have it or have had it is to test and there are not enough test kits available to do this.
 

DogT

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What happens to you in the States and you need a hospital bed because of CV, do you need credit card or health plan?
You'd better be a politician/rich/ or a movie star or all of the above. They get what they want, just like our illustrious prez said. What else is new? But testing is too late now for most of us, it's coming too fast. I'm just hoping if I do get it, I get through it. At 76 I don't have any conditions other than old age stuff. But I'm washing my hands and cleaning things with alcohol now and then. Luckily, I live miles from anyone, but I still have to go to the store just like everyone else.

Don't go to the grocery store and start picking your nose.
 

gortnipper

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I've heard that, but the numbers don't indicate it to me.

282K Covid-19 cases verses at least 38000K flu cases. Yes, the flu estimate is for a period 2 months longer. If exponentially figured 800K-1000K corona cases if it started in Oct 2019.

I assume the media reporting the communicability got there number from somewhere but was it authoritative and in context? I've searched quite a bit and can find no source for that statement. I would really like to read what it came from!
I got it here, and the article has been updated with new information.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-flu.html?0p19G=2870

Up to minute data here
https://ncov2019.live/#Global

https://www.democracynow.org/2020/3/17/avi_schiffmann_coronavirus_tracker
 
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marshg246

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I see. They reference the 28 Feb article here: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387 which actually says that at that time they estimated that each person infected 2.2 other people. Flu is estimated to infect 1.3 other people. For corona to be twice as communicable each person would have to infect 2.6 other people - again media making news from numbers they don't understand.

Please don't get me wrong - this is bad - especially for us old people. I may be jaded because in the Washington DC area, if it's not sensational, it's not news so I don't trust a lot of what I hear on the news.

Thanks for the 2nd link - it's much more informative that the one I've been watching.
 

Craig

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Today in Italy 700 real people died from the virus .... that a big number for one day ... the peak here is predicted to be in 4-8 wks right now in a population of just under 1 million , we have 15 cases one person in hospital .... not sure what future holds ...
 
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Better at your own hands than by the leave of others. I say bow to none and walk your own path.
 

DogT

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News media is not making this stuff up, the numbers are real and going to get substantially worse. I saw my GP the other day and he was really worried about it. Imagine all the hourly workers out of work, who's going to buy their food, get the health care they can't afford? We're in for a disaster, I wish it weren't so, but too many people have their head in the sand on this one including the Senate. We aren't ready for it, and also weren't ready for it. Lack of preparation and cutting things too close to the bone.

Don't worry, we can BS our way through it.
 
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The media should hang from street lamps followed by our bickering politicians. A long time coming, but cry 'wolf' enough times and you'll get the global catastrophe you've been begging for. I'm also pretty much for giving the ropes to scalpers, hoarders, and those that would judge who should receive treatment and who should not. You can believe everyone in gov. shall exempt themselves from being denied treatment for age or preexisting ailments.
Sorry to rant. You've all heard their 'sensible' statements voiced early on though as they were thinking aloud of difficult choices.
 

marshg246

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The media should hang from street lamps followed by our bickering politicians. A long time coming, but cry 'wolf' enough times and you'll get the global catastrophe you've been begging for. I'm also pretty much for giving the ropes to scalpers, hoarders, and those that would judge who should receive treatment and who should not. You can believe everyone in gov. shall exempt themselves from being denied treatment for age or preexisting ailments.
Sorry to rant. You've all heard their 'sensible' statements voiced early on though as they were thinking aloud of difficult choices.
That's too third-world, but I know some good oak trees. One is next to the church at the end of the Gallows Road in Annandale, VA :)
 
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It will be interesting to see where we are in two weeks, a month , 3 months.
Probably a lot more effective to wait and see rather than prognosticate and suppose.
...I have to go wash my hands. :)
 

Fast Eddie

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There’s no doubt this thing is bad. But we do need to question some of the stats.

We simply cannot calculate the mortality rate when we have NO IDEA of the actual infection rate. Death vs CONFIRMED cases means nothing. In the U.K. when we were at 2,000 confirmed cases they were estimating there were probably over 100,000 cases in total. That makes a rather large difference to the mortality rate calculation.

Another flaw is the death count. EVERYONE who dies, who has the virus, is counted as being killed by the virus, but this is just not true. Did you know that on average 1,600 people die in the U.K. every day? Now, seeing as the vast majority of covid19 deaths are elderly people with underlying health issues, many of them are clearly from the same ‘cluster’ that make up the 1,600 per day normal death rate.

Bottom line gents is that the stats that are being floated around at present really are meaningless.

If they are driving policy, that’s worrying.
 
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One way they ban oak trees the other we walk in the dark because street lamps are removed.... Sorry Jerry.... my mind wanders in my old age.

I feel better and more focused after my ride a few minutes ago.
 
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There’s no doubt this thing is bad. But we do need to question some of the stats.

We simply cannot calculate the mortality rate when we have NO IDEA of the actual infection rate. Death vs CONFIRMED cases means nothing. In the U.K. when we were at 2,000 confirmed cases they were estimating there were probably over 100,000 cases in total. That makes a rather large difference to the mortality rate calculation.

Another flaw is the death count. EVERYONE who dies, who has the virus, is counted as being killed by the virus, but this is just not true. Did you know that on average 1,600 people die in the U.K. every day? Now, seeing as the vast majority of covid19 deaths are elderly people with underlying health issues, many of them are clearly from the same ‘cluster’ that make up the 1,600 per day normal death rate.

Bottom line gents is that the stats that are being floated around at present really are meaningless.

If they are driving policy, that’s worrying.
Nigel,

The vast majority of covid 19 deaths are people with underlying health issues and compromised immune systems . True , some of this cohort are oldies but not all by any means.

There is a danger that oldies who neither have covid 19 nor pose any transmission risk are going to finish up under virtual house arrest as has happened to Ken in California.
 

Craig

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Nigel , not sure your quibble on what exactly a victim died from is valid , if they test positive for the virus and die .... they are just as dead , even if an underlying health issue was final cause , assuming issue was being managed before the virus .... that is
 
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Wasn't the saying: 'There's lies, damned lies... and statistics' ??
Though given the nature of the current problem, to err on the side of caution may not be a bad thing..
 
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Good question, but why don't we do the same? I also read people need to ready for bad news here in the states this week, not sure what that means. I thought that's all we've been hearing? Maybe they can finally start testing more people now? Time for us to run to the store, I'll report back. Stay safe all.
 
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