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Calling the bottom is difficult, it is more psychological than technical.

The bottom will come when the good news starts to outweigh the bad news.

There is a lot more bad news to come and little sign of good news. We have yet to see the inevitable credit crunch when companies cannot get funds to pay other companies and this will come as one example.

This time compared to 2008 the good news will be more medical than financial.

Once the markets recover confidence and the pent up deferred consumption is released expect inflation.
 

marshg246

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...... at my age long term is getting to have a new meaning.
And it keeps slapping me in the face.

I turned 70 this month. This morning, I was thinking about how many bikes I have to rebuild and how slowly I'm getting them done. I generally get two done a year in between helping others with their bikes. I'll be at least 76 before I'm done, and that assumes I can continue to talk myself into getting started working on it each day.

Being retired would help, but I still work full-time and if the market keeps going the wrong way, I may never retire.
 

marshg246

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One does wonder how long the lock down will go on for. How the world can not work and still pay bills is beyond me and I suspect beyond the toffs who run the shop.
I think after a month or so people will just go about their lives and ignore the dire warnings. We shall see.
Not to minimize this at all, but in some ways it's an overblown media event. For many, it's not even as bad as a cold. For us old folks, the death rate is a lot higher than the flu, but for most of the workforce it's not very dangerous.

1 Oct 2019 to 14 Mar 2020 flu is estimated to be 38-54 million cases with 23-59 thousands deaths. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

As of a few minutes ago, there have been 282395 reported cases of the corona virus:
https://www.bing.com/search?q=coronavirus+outbreak+map&filters=dtbk:"MTQwNTU5MzE1IW91dGJyZWFrIW91dGJyZWFr"&FORM=SNAPST

The infect rate is tiny compared to the flu.

The death rate seems to be related to medical care or something I'm not understanding.

Italy 8.6% France 3.6% USA 1.4% Germany 0.3%

I'm assuming that this is a very big story in Italy and taken in stride in Germany - is that true? In the Washington DC area, it's the only news.
 

grandpaul

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The death rate seems to be related to medical care or something I'm not understanding.

Italy 8.6% France 3.6% USA 1.4% Germany 0.3%

I'm assuming that this is a very big story in Italy and taken in stride in Germany - is that true? In the Washington DC area, it's the only news.
It is related to a combination of population demographics, government reaction, PUBLIC reaction (and behavior), and medical care quality
 

Craig

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Most countries go to dollar , most individuals go for gold ... watch price of gold daily , almost a pattern there right now , one day fear overcomes and price drops as smart buyers get in , next day up by 10-15 smart buyers selling , if you got extra you can afford to throw away , throw it in gold market on low day and be ready with nerves of steel .... ..... not sure death rate has anything to do with hospital care ..... would have to dig a bit deeper than American news ....
 

NPeteN

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Not to minimize this at all, but in some ways it's an overblown media event. For many, it's not even as bad as a cold. For us old folks, the death rate is a lot higher than the flu, but for most of the workforce it's not very dangerous.

1 Oct 2019 to 14 Mar 2020 flu is estimated to be 38-54 million cases with 23-59 thousands deaths. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

As of a few minutes ago, there have been 282395 reported cases of the corona virus:
https://www.bing.com/search?q=coronavirus+outbreak+map&filters=dtbk:"MTQwNTU5MzE1IW91dGJyZWFrIW91dGJyZWFr"&FORM=SNAPST

The infect rate is tiny compared to the flu.

The death rate seems to be related to medical care or something I'm not understanding.

Italy 8.6% France 3.6% USA 1.4% Germany 0.3%

I'm assuming that this is a very big story in Italy and taken in stride in Germany - is that true? In the Washington DC area, it's the only news.
If a ton of people get sick all at once the demand on the healthcare system is overwhelmed and unable to provide adequate care, people die (old folks like you, immunocompromised etc...). This is unacceptable.

If measures are taken to curb transmission, we can slow the virus and delay sickness, easing the burden on the healthcare system. People don't die.

The US is well on its way to outpace Italy in terms of confirmed cases and eventually, deaths.

Personally I'd rather not have half the users on this forum kick the bucket, I'm going to have to rebuild my engine one day...
 

marshg246

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If a ton of people get sick all at once the demand on the healthcare system is overwhelmed and unable to provide adequate care, people die (old folks like you, immunocompromised etc...). This is unacceptable.

If measures are taken to curb transmission, we can slow the virus and delay sickness, easing the burden on the healthcare system. People don't die.

The US is well on its way to outpace Italy in terms of confirmed cases and eventually, deaths.

Personally I'd rather not have half the users on this forum kick the bucket, I'm going to have to rebuild my engine one day...
Don't get me wrong - I agree. I'm 70 with heart and kidney issues so I'm doing everything I can to not get infected.

In Germany in 1999, I was in the hospital for 7 days after sinus surgery. In the us, I've had the same surgery three times and I never spent the night in the hospital. Unless the US increases hospital capacity to the level of Germany, we'll certainly have a higher death rate and it is impossible to increase that capacity overnight (or at all, really with our fondness for cheap).
 

NPeteN

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Don't get me wrong - I agree. I'm 70 with heart and kidney issues so I'm doing everything I can to not get infected.

In Germany in 1999, I was in the hospital for 7 days after sinus surgery. In the us, I've had the same surgery three times and I never spent the night in the hospital. Unless the US increases hospital capacity to the level of Germany, we'll certainly have a higher death rate and it is impossible to increase that capacity overnight (or at all, really with our fondness for cheap).
Agreed. Oddly enough we are the country best prepared to deal with a pandemic. What we do NOW is very important as our response up to this point has been terrible. Stay healthy.
 

Craig

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Key is to put a real thumping on the spread of the infection .... only China can build a hospital in a week , one that works anyway .... take a look at beaches of Florida during spring break almost a banner year , some folks have not got message ...
 

gortnipper

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Not to minimize this at all, but in some ways it's an overblown media event. For many, it's not even as bad as a cold. For us old folks, the death rate is a lot higher than the flu, but for most of the workforce it's not very dangerous.

1 Oct 2019 to 14 Mar 2020 flu is estimated to be 38-54 million cases with 23-59 thousands deaths. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

As of a few minutes ago, there have been 282395 reported cases of the corona virus:
https://www.bing.com/search?q=coronavirus+outbreak+map&filters=dtbk:"MTQwNTU5MzE1IW91dGJyZWFrIW91dGJyZWFr"&FORM=SNAPST

The infect rate is tiny compared to the flu.

The death rate seems to be related to medical care or something I'm not understanding.

Italy 8.6% France 3.6% USA 1.4% Germany 0.3%

I'm assuming that this is a very big story in Italy and taken in stride in Germany - is that true? In the Washington DC area, it's the only news.
The communicability of Covid-19 is 2x the rate of a normal annual flu, so that means each person who gets it infects twice as many people as a person with the flu.

The mortality rate is 10x higher than with annual flus. And there appears to be a higher interaction effect with people having pre-existing respiratory conditions.

Globally, influenza kills 250-500k persons per year, even with vaccination regimens.

The combination of all of this is what is driving the health systems to be overcome by the spike in cases, and overload critical care infrastructure, which drives up mortality. This is why the deaths in Italy have exceeded the deaths in China now - Italy cant keep up like china did, due to their ability to centralize control. I think this will also be the case in many western countries.
 
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What happens to you in the States and you need a hospital bed because of CV, do you need credit card or health plan?
 
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According to some figures I saw today “normal” flu kills on average 8000 in the U.K. each year, this does not include the mortality of people who would have otherwise died anyway because of other factors. CV has the potential to kill 500,000 if left unchecked, or 25,000 if fully contained.

so, if those figures are correct, the best case scenario is 3 times the normal kill rate against normal flu.

I'm worried. Very.
 

gortnipper

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Travel insurance providers in NZ have stopped covering for Covid-19, some of them for previously issued policies.

I would think insurance companies globally are all looking at weaseling out of this cri$i$.
 

marshg246

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The communicability of Covid-19 is 2x the rate of a normal annual flu, so that means each person who gets it infects twice as many people as a person with the flu.
I've heard that, but the numbers don't indicate it to me.

282K Covid-19 cases verses at least 38000K flu cases. Yes, the flu estimate is for a period 2 months longer. If exponentially figured 800K-1000K corona cases if it started in Oct 2019.

I assume the media reporting the communicability got there number from somewhere but was it authoritative and in context? I've searched quite a bit and can find no source for that statement. I would really like to read what it came from!
 

NPeteN

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We don't have enough tests to get an accurate depiction.

Where is Tornado? He can explain this.
 

marshg246

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What happens to you in the States and you need a hospital bed because of CV, do you need credit card or health plan?
Both, but preferably cash.
Actually in the INOVA system in Northern Virginia, you will find signs on the walls, especially in the ER, written in many languages, stating that you will be cared for regardless of ability to pay. INOVA is massive hospital/healthcare system. Trust me, you don't want to go to the ER in the morning - it becomes the free health clinic for illegal aliens and anyone down on their luck.

Of course, there is no free healthcare for the rest of us!
 

Eljahara

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I've heard that, but the numbers don't indicate it to me.

282K Covid-19 cases verses at least 38000K flu cases. Yes, the flu estimate is for a period 2 months longer. If exponentially figured 800K-1000K corona cases if it started in Oct 2019.

I assume the media reporting the communicability got there number from somewhere but was it authoritative and in context? I've searched quite a bit and can find no source for that statement. I would really like to read what it came from!
The biggest issue in relation to transmission is that the cases you quote are the RECORDED cases of CV19, the estimate for the number infected is 4-5 times the number but as you have said earlier - most of these have/had a mild infection and symptoms. The concern is that with so many unrecorded cases the chances of vulnerable individuals (like us) getting ill is much higher and that is where the death rate will come from.
The health systems are in panic mode as this is adding to the normal flu cases, which are still happening, and therefore overwhelming their capacity to cope. Factor in the current situation where people cannot buy fresh fruit and veg because others are stripping the shelves and immune systems are further compromised - it is a real shitstorm.
 
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