OonortonoO:
" registred" = people who tested positive.
Now over 850 000 .
I suppose not all of them are hospitalised?
Some of them are likely people with mild symptoms.
As I see it, those 850000 infected have only 2 options:
recover or die. ( bar indefinite life support..)
I've read a lot of your posts over the time I've been here and you come across as an intelligent person. WTBS, I shall try to be clear. Since testing isn't either random testing which extrapolates data to larger populations, or complete population testing which is an actual count, what we have is what you have called "registered cases". Without knowing who gets tested and how they qualify for testing, there's a chance that the facts that qualify a person for testing is related to how serious their symptoms are.....
SO,... If testing is done in Germany the same way it's being done here, then there's a bias in the choice of tested subjects. The CDC doesn't even want you to be tested unless you have severe symtoms, BECAUSE they feel that healthcare facilities are too busy treating people with severe symptoms to be testing every person who has a fever. Therefore, If testing data comes from medical facilities, it stands to reason that since they are mostly testing those people who have the most severe symptoms, the death rates and other measures of symptom severity is going to reflect an abnormally high number.
The death ratio is now 36% for the 132000 ' closed cases'
Why would that rate be any different for the 720000 still open cases'?
You still haven't explained that.
Anyway, we will know soon enough.
This pandemic is only in its early stages.
As far as "Closed cases" go, I don't have a clue what means. Irregardless, if you believe the 36% mortality rate extrapolates to the world's population in general then your prediction is that 2,808,000,000 will die from the Covid 19 virus. That's almost 3 billion people...
If that's not what you mean with your 36% number, then I don't see what it means and why you are using it.
Everyone is going to be exposed,... everyone. Containment may have been possible, but as I said earlier in this thread, the nature of the infection (the mild symptoms of some infected people, plus the length of time it can be present in a person before it presents symptoms) makes containment nearly impossible. As I said previously, if everyone who was infected got reasonably ill, containment might be possible, but people are asymptomatic and infectious at the same time so they aren't recognizing that they are contageous.
I'm pretty sure the prediction your president ( around 65000 ) is way too optimistic.
I hope I am wrong though..
Nope, I agree. If you read what I wrote about avalanche danger risk on the prior page, I think there is a faction who want to take the risks and open up our country because they feel there will never be ZERO risk from Covid 19, and to destroy the entire lives of of a good portion of our population while we wait for the risk to approach ZERO will cause as much loss of life as any virus. So there's calculations to be made, as to how much risk is worth taking to begin getting back to normal. As you said, An Optimist is willing to tolerate much more risk than the pessimist. Both of whom have vested interests in taking or not taking risk, beyond the just the welfare of the people.
I hope you are wrong too, but I think you are right about optimists minimizing the estimated death toll, and in the end I don't believe it's going to be the 2 million americans dead, like it was first predicted, nor will it be the adjusted 200,000, but I bet it will be well over 100,000 dead. I think that because as you said, the optimist projections will be low, and the pessimists will be high. It makes sense that the real number will land in the middle. At 15,000,000 dead, in the USA, that translates to about 4.57% which is a long way from 36%, but that's my guess for the mortality rate of those infected.
Anyway, I hope that makes sense to you... I was trying to be clear and respectful.
Edited to add,... I fixed my mistaken math. 4.57% death rate turns out to be 15 million dead given the entire USA population can be considered as "infected". That's a huge number.
The USA has tested about 1% of the population. As I said previously, we can only hope that their testing focused so heavily on those people who are in danger of dieing that their published mortality rates are extremely high and many magnitudes greater than the mortality rate for the entire population. If the mortality rate does become 36% for all those infected, there's not going to be a housing crisis in america, nor any social security insolvency. 36% mortality rate in america will be 120 million dead.