Probability and certainty

There was a comment in a topic a few days ago, which said that as a scientist, I use the word 'probably' a lot. Some people like to have certainty in their lives. However I have discovered that there is very little which I believe without reservation. All engineering is based upon science, and engineers like to plug numbers into scientist's equations and use the results without much question. During WW2, the Nazis had their own atomic scientist - Werner Heisenberg. He is famous for the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle - which is also known as the 'Observer Effect' - just be being there, the observer changes the outcome. Australia was the first country in the world to have a national standard about risk management. Our industrial safety laws are now risk-based instead of prescriptive in every jurisdiction, an a fatality which involves gross negligence can attract the charge of manslaughter.
In science nothing is ever certain. Our whole world might be a fantasy.
When road racing a motorcycle, it always worth noticing trends and patterns. The best answer to a problem is not often that one size fits all. When you are part of a road race, you affect the outcome because you interact.

acotrel said:

There was a comment in a topic a few days ago, which said that as a scientist, I use the word 'probably' a lot. Some people like to have certainty in their lives. However I have discovered that there is very little which I believe without reservation. All engineering is based upon science, and engineers like to plug numbers into scientist's equations and use the results without much question. During WW2, the Nazis had their own atomic scientist - Werner Heisenberg. He is famous for the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle - which is also known as the 'Observer Effect' - just be being there, the observer changes the outcome. Australia was the first country in the world to have a national standard about risk management. Our industrial safety laws are now risk-based instead of prescriptive in every jurisdiction, an a fatality which involves gross negligence can attract the charge of manslaughter.
In science nothing is ever certain. Our whole world might be a fantasy.
When road racing a motorcycle, it always worth noticing trends and patterns. The best answer to a problem is not often that one size fits all. When you are part of a road race, you affect the outcome because you interact.

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‘Science’ is the controlled experimentation to test a hypothesis.

So, it is very, very limited. And slow.

The simple act of creating a controlled experiment means that you have to isolate tens, hundreds, thousands, of factors.

So, straight away, questions are created about what impact other factors could / would have had.

Then there is the experiment itself. There are only two outcomes to a hypothesis test: reject or confirm.

If the hypothesis is rejected, many questions are then generated as to ‘why?’ And ‘what could be done differently?’ Etc.

Conversely, if the hypothesis is confirmed, we now have a new state of knowledge, so now questions are generated as to ‘what have we learnt here?’ and ‘what does it mean?’ and ‘what do we do next?’ Etc.

So, actually science is a paradox as it seeks to provide answers, but will always generate more questions than answers!

This is why I hate phrases like ‘THE science says’ or ‘The science is settled’ etc. ANYONE who uses phrases like that either does not understand science or has deliberately stopped applying science.

It seems like almost every week something ‘new’ is discovered about how the human body works, or a new discovery ‘changes our understanding of human history’ etc.

So… whilst I’m not some kind of anti science nut job, my conclusion is that despite all of our scientific might, we still do not know anywhere near as much as we are led to believe about how our own bodies work or our own history. Neither do we fully understand how our own atmosphere works or what is at the bottom of our oceans.

If we don’t understand such fundamental stuff properly, how can we expect to know much about anything else !?!

I think this is why I like bolting motorbikes together …!

Fast Eddie said:

‘Science’ is the controlled experimentation to test a hypothesis.

I think this is why I like bolting motorbikes together …!

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Although, I think another version of "science" lacks the hypothesis.
eg: "I wonder what will happen if we do this?"
Still empirical - but not so much forethought.

I just do things, if it works, great, if it don't then you learned the hard way and by your mistake to not do that again and how many times has science got it right to find out later they had it all wrong and I fully agree with Nigel, I love tinkering with my motorcicles, riding and building them.

robs ss said:

Although, I think another version of "science" lacks the hypothesis.
eg: "I wonder what will happen if we do this?"
Still empirical - but not so much forethought.

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I would argue that is not true scientific method. The scientific method requires a hypothesis…

By the time I did all that I would have forgotten the question lol.

And if the evidence does not confirm the hypothesis then invent a new set of Science rules where you can carry on believing your unproven hypothesis is a true theory. Cos if its true the world will end !!!

If I fart, will it stink. That's about the limit on my Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle.

For many people, cause and effect are binary. My son is a mechanical engineer. He tried to learn how to play a piano, but found he could not get his head in three places simultaneously. I do not believe he has ever written a computer program. Often cause and effect might comprise two related patterns. When robots are programmed to paint cars, there is often a training set which involves holding the robot's hand to modify it's mind. If you stand above a valley and look at a landscape, you see three dimensions and there are a couple of notional ones - time and temperature. So you are handling five variables. In games theory, the low energy path is the one to take. It is down in the valley where the rivers and roads are.
So the message is don't make things more difficult for yourself than they really are.
When you road race, do not take the high line unless you have a Ducati.

Ashley, science and technology are fun to be enjoyed - not an impost. I am actually a pacifist, but I really enjoyed firing rocket motors and a 5 inch gun. A lot depends on how you look at things. I am 83, and I love thinking about what I did for a living, it makes me laugh. My last paid job involved managing a project making hand grenades - I must be sick ?

ashman said:

I just do things, if it works, great, if it don't then you learned the hard way and by your mistake to not do that again and how many times has science got it right to find out later they had it all wrong and I fully agree with Nigel, I love tinkering with my motorcicles, riding and building them.

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I have built about 5 motorcycles. As soon as you race them, they need improvement. Each bike I built influenced the next one. When I built the Seeley, I knew where the motor had to be, the exhaust system needed, the cam timing and the jetting. What I did NOT know was about steering geometry, and it is critical. If you get that right, most other things do not matter.
Your featherbed Commando should handle as well as a Manx - not to be sneezed at.

The only complete from scratch bike I ever built was my Commando/Featherbed, yes I have rebuilt a few Commando's but a complete bike from 2 and a few dirt bikes but my Norton was the first British road bike and built for myself and the way I wanted it to be, I was in my early 20s and what I done must have been right as I still own and ride it today, have added a few good upgrades to make it even better over the 44+ years after I built it when I had the money, has proven itself to be a great light weight handling bike as well very reliable, the 2 most important factors, was no science about it just what was in my head when I started it and looking at the mistakes my mate who sold me the Featherbed frame and doing things different to his Commando/Featherbed.
Not bad from leaving high school at 15 (dropout) and working simple jobs, but I did learn to use my hands more than my brain, well both go together as I am still alive lol.
I was never good with science, math's at school in fact I couldn't get out of the school doors quick enough as soon as I turned 15 in grade 9 and straight into work.
Now I got to get back into the 1960 Manxman cafe racer project build.
Firing big 5" guns would be fun.

Ashley

best science for me is lap times / average speeds

I place a lot of value in uncertainty and self doubt. I see little benefit in believing you ever truly know anything- the little lingering self doubt in our assumptions keeps us looking for truth and hunting for reality.

Schwany said:

If I fart, will it stink. That's about the limit on my Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle.

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I know it will stink, its the stain thats uncertain.

Schwany said:

If I fart, will it stink. That's about the limit on my Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle.

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I know mine will as I eat a lot of onions, garlic and fried cabbage and most of the time all together when cooking lol, keeps the bugs away, your mates, but one good thing I never have a blockage and maybe my motor will fire up from my farts lol.

ashman said:

The only complete from scratch bike I ever built was my Commando/Featherbed, yes I have rebuilt a few Commando's but a complete bike from 2 and a few dirt bikes but my Norton was the first British road bike and built for myself and the way I wanted it to be, I was in my early 20s and what I done must have been right as I still own and ride it today, have added a few good upgrades to make it even better over the 44+ years after I built it when I had the money, has proven itself to be a great light weight handling bike as well very reliable, the 2 most important factors, was no science about it just what was in my head when I started it and looking at the mistakes my mate who sold me the Featherbed frame and doing things different to his Commando/Featherbed.
Not bad from leaving high school at 15 (dropout) and working simple jobs, but I did learn to use my hands more than my brain, well both go together as I am still alive lol.
I was never good with science, math's at school in fact I couldn't get out of the school doors quick enough as soon as I turned 15 in grade 9 and straight into work.
Now I got to get back into the 1960 Manxman cafe racer project build.
Firing big 5" guns would be fun.

Ashley

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Ashley. When I was in primary school, I was top of my grade - so my teacher sat me next to the smartest girl who refused to talk to me. That is where I learned to fight. I next attended selective-entry public school. Every evening after school, I had two regular jobs to get money to play with motorcycles. I never studied. The reason I failed half of my Matriculation exams, was after tea, I used to walk to either of my mates' homes which were about 2 miles away in opposite directions. We used to build hotted up racing motors.
After I left school, I got a job in a government department, and because I began studying chemistry on a part-time basis, I was asked to work in the Commonwealth Analyst's Branch. It took me ten years to get my first diploma, then I was off to the aircraft factory and away. By the time I was 29, I had a wife, two kids, two cars, a racing motorcycle and a mortgage. I can remember one week when I was at school 3 rimes, spent a night at Port Melbourne checking passengers' baggage and slept until late Saturday afternoon. I had a shit of a marriage, but I loved what I did.
Never under-rate yourself. From your posts, you usually understand what I say. Some people do not have that ability. I was trained as a scientist by Nazis and Jews. One of my bosses was a quarter Jewish - he was assessed and sent to Paris in the Wehrmacht. A lot can be learned from those sorts of people. In the aircraft factory, the guys who trained me were ex air force.
I have worked in about 6 defence factories and a couple of private ones. The most staff I have had under me at any one time, was about 32.

Many people go to school to 'become something'. I never did. I always went to where I wanted to go. Only on very rare occasions did I miss-out on any job for which I applied. When you are competent, employers usually recognise your usefulness. If you are still young, find something you would really like to do, and go there and ask for a job doing it.

Just think Al, if you'd only done the studying at the right time YOU might have been the aircraft factory owner with thousands of employees.